2021.1월 체크포인트

 2021.1월 현재 실물경제와  부동산 가격과 주가지수등이 큰 차이가 납니다.

걱정이 되어서  좀 찾아보았습니다.


2019년  채권금리 장단기 역전현상이 나서 위험신호가 켜졌었죠.


https://www.mk.co.kr/news/economy/view/2019/08/662879/

2019년 8월기사입니다.  채권금리 장단기 역전현상에 대해 잘 설명되어 있네요.


1960~현재까지  그래프인데 

위 그래프 회색으로 마킹되어 있는 곳이 경제공황, 아이티버블, 서브프라임등 경제위기가 터진 시점이죠.   잘 보시면 장단기 금리가 역전되고 경기가 바로 침체되는 것이 아니라 3~4년정도 지나서 일어나네요. 



2019년 역전 현상후 최근까지 지표입니다.  일단 우려와는 달리 회복세를 보이고 있습니다.


미국금리인상 뉴스나 중국 긴축재정발표 나오려고 분위기 잡으면 다시 한번 체크해 봐야 겠네요.

환율 및 외환보유고,  개인주식예탁금 부분은 다음 기회에 살펴보겠습니다.




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